Societal Impacts Program (SIP)
All aspects of the U.S. public and economy are directly and indirectly affected by weather, but no definitive assessments of weather's impacts have yet been performed, and the information that has been generated from previous studies is hard to locate and synthesize. The Societal Impacts Program (SIP), funded by NOAA’s U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) and NSF, addresses these gaps by developing and supporting a closer relationship between weather researchers, operational forecasters, relevant end-users, and social scientists concerned with the impacts of weather and weather information on society. SIP activities include primary research, outreach and education, and development and support for the weather impacts community. SIP researchers at NCAR include participants from RAL, ISSE, and MMM, and from COMET in the UCAR Office of Programs.
FY06 Accomplishments:
The map shows results from the Societal Impacts Program’s Overall US Sector Sensitivity Assessment which examined the sensitivity and vulnerability of state-level economic productivity to weather. 24 years of economic data and 70 years of weather data were used in an economic model to estimate sensitivity and vulnerability to weather variability. The percent sensitivity represents how much each state’s gross state product varies around average due to weather variability impacts. All states show some sensitivity to weather with a range from 2.5% to 13.6% annual variability. Absolute gross state product is estimated to vary between $600,000 a year for Montana to over $110 billion a year for California. This is the first study of its kind to combine economic and weather data using valid economic methods to assess sector, state, and national economic sensitivity weather variability.
Current research activities by SIP staff have focused on completing the review of the extant social science research on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). The assessment indicates that there is little reliable or valid socio-economic information on the use and value of QPFs to guide policy making and future operational or research investments. In the Overall U.S. Sector Sensitivity Assessment, weather and economic time-series data have been analyzed to identify overall sensitivity of 11 US super-sectors to weather variability. Empirical results suggest a smaller sensitivity than previously reported but still significant in absolute value – on the order of $260B a year. Work has also been initiated on developing methods to evaluate individuals’ uses and perceptions of uncertainty information in weather forecasts. Additional efforts are focused on developing methods to assess the economic value of daily weather forecasts to households and the value of improved hurricane forecasts.
In 2005/2006, SIP staff in collaboration with two visiting scientists, Eve Gruntfest and Julie Demuth, developed and implemented the Weather And Society*Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Workshop and Short Course. This effort trains and empowers practitioners, researchers, and stakeholders to forge new relationships and to use new tools for more effective socio-economic applications and evaluations of weather products. Building on the overwhelming response to the first workshop two additional workshops were implemented – one in Norman, Oklahoma and a second Boulder based workshop. A total of 86 WAS*IS graduates now comprise a growing community of researchers, operational forecasters, academics, and private sector individuals working to infuse social science research and understanding into the Weather Enterprise.
FY07 Plans:
Primary research in 2007 will focus on completing the current phase of the Overall U.S. Sector Sensitivity Assessment and extending work in this area into an individual sector assessment of specific sectors – likely the transportation sector. Work will continue on a study of the value of current and improved forecasts to US households in the first economically valid national study of the value of weather information. A similar focused effort will develop methods to assess the value of hurricane forecasts in vulnerable areas. Current efforts to examine individuals' understanding, use, and value for uncertainty information in weather forecasts include collection of data from approximately 1,000 US households. Work has been initiated on developing methods to evaluate individuals’ uses and perceptions of uncertainty information in weather forecasts. Understanding the communication and use of uncertainty in weather forecasts will be a significant ongoing thread of social science research and weather forecasts for the SIP.
Photo of WAS*IS participates from the summer 2006 workshop held in Boulder. The workshop was successful in attracting participants with broad range of backgrounds.
A WAS*IS workshop is scheduled for summer 2007. Special offsite WAS*IS workshops are planned, including a January 2007 workshop in Melbourne, Australia. Continued efforts will focus on sustaining the community initiated through the 2005 and 2006 workshops including special sessions at the 2007 AMS annual meeting.
Impact of Program:
If the potential benefits associated with improved weather forecasts are to be realized, we need to understand how individuals and socioeconomic sectors use and could use different types of weather information. SIP plays a unique role in this endeavor, serving as a focal point for assembling, coordinating, developing, and synthesizing research and information on the societal impacts and economic benefits of weather information.
List of Sponsors:
National Science Foundation
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration