Goal Area: Hydrometeorological Research and Applications on Local to Global Scales
Motivation
Hydrometeorology is the science that combines study of the atmosphere and the hydrosphere, particularly interactions between the two. RAL's hydrology component has grown over the past five years and is merged administratively with its longstanding convective weather and winter weather scientific groups on the atmospheric side. The same group of people interact with the NCAR Water System program.
This merger has been very effective. Applications focused on water resources, flood warnings and control, winter weather precipitation events and weather modification are growing at a rapid rate. Earth's water supply when considered on a regional basis may not be sustainable relative to agricultural and industrial practices of the last century. Many questions arise that can only be addressed by multi–year, interdisciplinary research programs. RAL intends to build this research area to meet the needs of national (federal, state, county and municipal) and international organizations in the public and private sectors and to make a significant contribution to the science of hydrometeorology.
Current research is focused on the following areas:
- Short term storm forecasting
- Aerosols and precipitation
- Hydrometeorological processes at the land-atmosphere interface
- Microphysical parameterizations
- Winter precipitation and snowpack
RAL and its university collaborators will continue to pursue these research tracks which have emanated from careful inter–laboratory and cross–institutional collaboration over the past several years. These hydrometeorological goals are strongly leveraged with support associated with NCAR's Short–Term Explicit Prediction (STEP) program (supported with USWRP–labeled NSF base funds) and the NCAR Water System program. The latter two named programs have been very successful in crossing multiple NCAR management units. In addition, a number of RAL scientists have joint appointments with the Institute for Integrative and Multidisciplinary Studies (TIIMES) working on the Water System program.
RAL is engaged in a spectrum of research activities which aim to improve understanding of hydrometeorological processes and increase the accuracy and value of community–based hydrometeorological prediction systems. The staff members are currently engaged in several projects extending from basic research to highly sophisticated applications.
Near-Term Objectives
Short-Term Storm Forecasting (2009–2013)
The skill of observation–based nowcasts decreases rapidly with lead time. NWP has limited predictive ability in the first few hours due primarily to the problem of model spin–up. The purpose of the research and development efforts described here is to bridge the gap in skill represented by these forecast techniques through the optimal combination of observation based nowcasts and numerical modeling in collaboration with scientists at ESSL and EOL. Efforts here are leveraged with the FAA–funded CoSPA development.
Actions:
These include:
Targeted Sponsors: NSF, FAA, NASA, NOAA.
Anticipated Collaborators: RAL will work collaboratively with ESSL (MMM), EOL and externally with NOAA (GOES–R applications), university partners, MIT Lincoln Laboratories, and international storm–related research and development in Korea and Taiwan.
Specific Measurements of Success: These include a) improvement in the 2–6 hour CSI of storm forecasts by 25% over current performance by 2013, b) improvement of the 4DVAR system component by a factor of ten in execution speed by 2013, c) incorporation of surface moisture from radars into cloud resolving models by 2012, d) implementation of a method to retrieve surface moisture from Nexrad network radars into operational algorithms by 2013, and e) operational use of the storm AutoNowcaster by NWS personnel via AWIPS by 2013.
An example of surface moisture retrieval from radar–derived refractivity is shown in the figure below. Our goal is to implement this capability into the national radar network to provide forecast systems with the moisture information of high spatial and temporal resolution that is required to produce more accurate forecasts.
Composite radar reflectivity (left) and refractivity (right) from the Denver WSR–88D, SPOL and CHILL radars. A line of storms has moved in from the west and an associated radar reflectivity fine line marks the leading edge gust front, which is labeled on both images.
Coupled Surface Hydrometeorological Modeling and Regional Climate (2009–2013)
RAL scientists are involved with a variety of projects related to hydrometeorological processes at the land–atmosphere interface such as runoff (flash floods and river discharge), infiltration, and soil moisture. A major goal is to improve our understanding of land–atmospheric interactions spanning a variety of time and space scales (weather to climate). This includes development of the community Noah land–surface and coupled WRF/Noah regional climate models to help water managers to more effectively plan for both flash flood events and future climate change.
Current projects include a Front Range flash flood project, the development of a distributed hydrological model for Romania, research studies on the North American Monsoon, collaborative projects with government agencies and university communities to improve the Noah land surface model, investigating land-atmospheric feedback in semi–arid regions in the US and China, ten–year reanalysis of land–surface component for arctic region, climate forecasting applications in Bangladesh and California, a new tool to allow water managers to assess the impact of future climate predicted precipitation on the operation of their watershed or other operation (WEAP), and a new project to examine through observations and modeling the likely impact of climate change on snowfall and snowpack over the headwaters of the various rivers originating in Colorado (Colorado Headwaters Project).
The Colorado Headwaters Project is an end–to–end program focused on the impact of climate change on snowpack in the Colorado Rockies using a high resolution climate version of WRF. In addition to physical studies, the program includes water resource and other societal impacts. The project extends across several units of NCAR. RAL staff are leading and conducting key aspects of this program.
Key tools for these process studies include radars, satellites, surface meteorological stations, the WRF mesoscale model with the Noah land surface model for both weather and regional climate, a new distributed version of the Noah land surface model that allows for overland and subsurface flows, and the WEAP water evaluation and planning tool. The community models that include the Noah distributed and WRF/Noah regional climate models will serve as a framework from which further interaction with the hydrological community will occur.
Actions:
Targeted Sponsors: NSF, NASA, NOAA, foreign government agencies, AID, World Bank.
Anticipated Collaborators: RAL scientists will maintain close ties with the Water System program, with a number of RAL staff partially funded by this program. The efforts supported by the Water System program are complementary to RAL funded efforts, and help RAL scientists maintain a close link to basic research efforts from which many of the applied activities are derived.
Specific Measurements of Success:
These include:
Aerosols and Precipitation (2009–2013)
Many countries around the world practice cloud seeding to enhance precipitation, but in most regions of the world there is little if any evidence of its effectiveness. In trying to understand this issue RAL research has focused on various aspects of advertent and inadvertent modification of clouds and precipitation by aerosols. Current efforts have emphasized cloud and aerosol measurements at a variety of locations around the world (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Mali, Australia, and Wyoming). A program of "best practices" has been followed that emphasizes airborne and radar measurements and cloud climatology studies as a prelude to conducting any randomized seeding trials. Education and other kinds of capacity building are a major part of the effort.
Actions:
These include:
Targeted Sponsors: Various national and foreign government agencies, World Bank, U.S. Agency for International Development.
Anticipated Collaborators: Univ. of Texas, Texas A&M, Univ. of Wyoming, Univ. of North Dakota, Arizona State Univ., Univ. of Witwatersrand
Specific Measurements of Success:
These include:
Microphysical Parameterizations (2009–2012)
Research activities related to microphysical modeling are designed to improve the simulation of cloud water (including super-cooled cloud water), rain and drizzle, freezing rain and freezing drizzle, snow, snow pellets, ice pellets and hail in RUC and WRF models. Super–cooled cloud water and freezing drizzle are emphasized due to their importance to aircraft icing. RAL scientists participated in the ICE–L field program that took place during November and December of 2007 and will seek additional opportunities to conduct field studies on a "piggyback" basis. RAL scientists co-led the World Meteorological Organization Cloud Modeling Workshop during the summer of 2008. A peer reviewed paper was accepted in Monthly Weather Review the summer of summer 2008 that described in detail the current upgrades to the microphysical model. A key aspect of the new microphysical model is the use of non-dimensional observed snow spectra to constrain the snow species.
Actions:
These include:
Targeted Sponsors: FAA Aviation Weather Research Program, NCAR base (STEP program).
Anticipated Collaborators: U. of Washington, U. of Pecs, St. Louis University.
Specific Measurements of Success:
These include:
Winter Precipitation and Snowpack (2009–2013)
Efforts in this area include the development of radar based algorithms to detect winter precipitation type, winter microphysics studies using a video disdrometer and other data at the Marshall Field Test site, participation in winter field programs such as IMPROVE II and ICE–L, analysis of data from field programs to improve understanding of winter precipitation processes, and weather modification efforts related to winter snowpack enhancement. Scientists in this area are also heavily involved with the Colorado Headwater's research effort funded by the Water System program. A recent development is the decision by the NOAA Climate Reference Network program to move their Sterling, VA test facility to the Marshall Test site. We anticipate that future research opportunities related to snow gauges and other winter surface based instrumentation may develop out of this effort. We are also currently in negotiation with the National Weather Service to conduct winter testing of future ASOS sensors such as the All Weather Precipitation Accumulation Gauge at the Marshall Test site.
Actions:
These include:
Targeted Sponsors: These include NSF (STEP program), NOAA (NWS and NESDIS), FAA.
Anticipated Collaborators: Univ. of Wyoming, NOAA.
Specific Measurements of Success:
These include:
Frontiers
Water in the West (2009–2013)
- Improving scientific understanding of the magnitude of the expected drought and expected impacts on precipitation, sublimation, runoff and soil moisture through the use of high resolution climate models (in association with the Colorado Headwaters project).
- Water resource impacts through use of the WEAP model.
- Implement RAL flash flood decision support system into the infrastructure of Western water utilities.
- Societal impacts through interactions with ISSE.
Actions:
Write a proposal to the NSF to enhance support for the Colorado Headwaters program (in collaboration with TIIMES). Collaborate with the USGS on the development of a study on the impact of climate change on the Ogallala Aquifer. Hire an additional support scientist to support the program–building efforts involving WEAP and the societal impacts opportunities with Western water utilities. Further develop the RAL flash flood decision support system to the point that it can be deployed at Western water utilities.
Targeted Sponsors: NSF, NOAA, NASA, Bureau of Reclamation, Western water utilities.
Anticipated Collaborators: USGS, Bureau of Reclamation, American Water Works Association Research Foundation (AWWARF).
Specific Measurements of Success: Completion of end–to–end programs regarding the impact of climate change on Colorado Headwaters water resources. Establishment of a new program examining the impact of climate change in the West. Implementation of flash flood decision support system by Western water utilities.
Water Applications for the Developing World (2009–2013)
The United Nations World Water Development reports (2003, 2005) have identified water as one of the key issues that need to be addressed in order for the developing world to progress beyond current poverty levels. Key issues include water scarcity, water quality, and water related disasters. NCAR scientists have developed a number of approaches that can be applied to help developing countries address these issues, including water management and disaster preparedness tools. Examples include the Bangladesh Flood forecast system, the Front Range Flash Flood Nowcast system, the WEAP system for evaluating optimal water management in a changing world, and weather modification models and evaluation methods for water scarce regions. A number of current efforts are addressing some of these issues in developing countries, but much more needs to be done.
Actions:
These include:
Targeted Sponsors: AID, World Bank, NOAA and NSF
Anticipated Collaborators: Interested universities and Federal agencies.
Specific Measurements of Success: Successfully submit a plan and receive funding to begin a program.