In a Rapidly-Changing World
RAL’s success over the past two and a half decades has been highly correlated with its ability to foresee problems that evolving communities and technologies face as they are exposed to weather hazards. Two decades ago it was common for organizations like the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to design very large systems without factoring in the effects of weather hazards. That is not true today in large part because of RAL’s ability to convince FAA managers that such systems could not operate with sufficient safety or efficiency without incorporating weather information. Surface transportation planners and designers are now beginning to adopt similar practices, again largely due to RAL and its partner organizations playing an early role in developing weather resilient systems and infrastructure.
Given the need to produce state of the art solutions, RAL must pay close attention to the evolution of new technologies, and understand their reliability, availability, and cost.
Another component of analyzing change over the next decade is the general budget climate for basic and applied research that will prevail. This is highly correlated with domestic and international politics, level of military expenditures globally, balance of power internationally, international currency fluctuations, and the global public’s perception of the value of weather and climate information. Analysis of all of these factors at even the slightest level of detail is beyond the scope of this document; however, the plans presented have had to consider these factors in laying out R&D tracks and strategies to pursue within RAL. Such strategies are meant to position the Laboratory over the next three, five and ten years to provide the best solution to meet emerging needs. All of the factors mentioned in this section converge to produce a set of emerging needs within certain communities. Some of the background assumptions on which this plan is based are listed in Section 7.
In the End-to-End R&D Process
NCAR’s founder, Dr. Walter Orr Roberts, promoted “Science in Service to Society” from the earliest days of NCAR’s history. RAL adopted that theme to describe its primary mission. In order for this mission to be carried out successfully, a process that is sometimes referred to as “end-to-end R&D” must be employed. The process begins with basic science, which is always the foundation of any successful effort to transfer technology. The process continues with directed research and development aimed at tailored solutions to specific weather problems. The end point is the delivery of a new technology that increases productivity, safety, mobility or efficiency within some operational environment. RAL participates in all phases of this cycle, with careful assessment of the science and its readiness for application, thoughtful discussions with the user community about real needs and the readiness to accept and exploit new capabilities, and focused attention on the necessary human and computational resources (on both the developer and recipient sides) required to test, validate and deliver the technology. In the last step, it is usually critical that operational stakeholders receive suitable training to use the new technology.
While the phrase “end-to-end” is commonly used, a term like “spiral development” more accurately portray the iterative development process between researcher/developer and user that is almost always necessary for successful technology transfer. Careful and continued attention to user needs will be the continued hallmark of RAL.