Advanced Verification Techniques
Advanced verification techniques in RAL provide independent verification of aviation weather forecasting systems (turbulence, convective weather, CIP, oceanic weather) and other types of forecasts (homeland security applications) that are being developed at NCAR and other laboratories. The verification group (VG) works closely with other external verification groups to evaluate the forecasting capabilities of experimental products that are being considered for operational status. Because aviation weather forecasts are non-standard and because the phenomena of concern (e.g., icing, turbulence) often are difficult to observe, the VG is continually developing new statistical techniques and verification approaches that are appropriate for unique aviation weather forecasts and observations. Research also continues in many other areas, including development of approaches to evaluate ceiling and visibility forecasts, the use of new observations to evaluate turbulence forecasts, applications of extreme value theory, and the development of methods to use aircraft situation information for verification.