HAPpy Hour Seminar: Numerical modeling of current and future glacier mass balance and streamflow in Alaska

Abstract:  Glacier covered landscapes in the Alaska National Parks are important to climate systems, ecosystems, hydrologic resources, infrastructure/safety and are icons of its landscape. In order to monitor the state of glacier status and trends, the National Park Service (NPS) requires information on the spatial distribution, current extent and changes in glaciers over time. In addition, changes to the hydrological cycle will be impacted by changes in glacier cover and needs to be understood. Results from decades long simulations of glacier and subsequent streamflow, both for current conditions (1990-2020) and for near future projections (2035-2065) over the entire Alaska will be presented. A new glacier capability within Weather Research and Forecasting – Hydrology (WRF-Hydro/Glacier) is used to evaluate the changes in glacier mass balance and subsequent changes in streamflow with warming temperatures. The detailed, physically based one dimensional, column snowpack model (Crocus) is used to represent the glaciers and allows for direct surface mass balance simulation of the glaciers and subsequent modeling of meltwater discharge from glaciers. We use new high resolution, downscaled products over Alaska, based on WRF 4 km simulations as forcing.



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