For Precision Forecasting 

According to the National Climatic Center, over the last 10 years, the United States has been battered by costly hurricanes incurring a price tag of more than $347 billion. Forecasting their strength and arrival along with predicting their path and is critically important information for people to prepare and evacuate, if necessary. Scientists at NCAR are providing invaluable support to NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), to improve the accuracy and reliability of hurricane forecasts; extending lead time for hurricane forecasts with more certainty; and to increase confidence in hurricane forecasts.This accuracy depends on our independent, testing and evaluation of models based on criteria provided by the operations side.

Focus Areas of Research

Clouds at sunrise

Community Code

Providing free and shared resources with distributed development and centralized support

Data Assimilation

Providing state-of-the-art data assimilation capabilities to both operational and research communities
Sunrise with stormy sky

End-to-End Modeling Systems

Developing and tailoring modeling systems for international partners optimized for the end-user

Forecast Evaluation

Providing meaningful information to researchers and operational end users of weather and climate models

Hierarchical System Development

Engaging in development and testing at multiple levels of complex prediction software

Multiscale and Probabilistic Prediction

Assessing merits of innovative NWP techniques for multiscale deterministic and probabilistic model guidance

Tropical Cyclones

Providing Meaningful Information About the Quality of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts


Michael Ek

Director, Joint Numerical Testbed