Analyzing Hurricane Maria's Change in Track, Intensity and Duration in a Future Weather Scenario

Nunez, A. R., Dougherty, E. M., Ocasio, K. M. N.. (2025). Analyzing Hurricane Maria's Change in Track, Intensity and Duration in a Future Weather Scenario. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/pph9-8r06

Title Analyzing Hurricane Maria's Change in Track, Intensity and Duration in a Future Weather Scenario
Genre Manuscript
Author(s) Antonio Ruiz Nunez, Erin M. Dougherty, Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio
Abstract Hurricane Maria was a very destructive hurricane that devastated the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico between September 15-30, 2017. With $91.6 billion in damages and 2,975 fatalities, it is the costliest and deadliest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico. Due to the devastation of this storm, the Mesoscale Affinity Group (MAAG), in collaboration with Texas A&M University, produced a two-week Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A) simulation to analyze this storm as well as other storms in the region during this time period. However, it is imperative to study how Hurricane Maria would have responded to a possible future scenario where warmer sea surface temperatures and higher moisture are projected. To analyze this scenario, an MPAS simulation was run over the same two-week time period, with a future change signal from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) added to the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) reanalysis data. Using the control and future simulations, we analyzed how the track, intensity, and duration changed in the future scenario. We found that future Hurricane Maria's track moves significantly to the west, has a shorter overall lifetime, shows a higher precipitation rate at peak intensity, and has a similar maximum peak wind speed.
Publication Title
Publication Date Aug 1, 2025
Publisher's Version of Record https://doi.org/10.5065/pph9-8r06
OpenSky Citable URL https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7tt4wc2
OpenSky Listing View on OpenSky
RAL Affiliations HAP

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