Outstanding Publication Award

This article presents an elegant, highly innovative, and broadly influential conceptual framework for using probabilistic forecasting to characterize and manage the risk that weather poses to air traffic. The framework is demonstrated through a case study of a very disruptive and costly outbreak of thunderstorms in the northeastern United States. Beyond just this demonstration, the framework has the potential to transform how our society conceives, builds, uses, and evaluates weather-based decision-support technologies. Several letters of support highlight the framework's extensibility - NOAA's Robert Maxson calls it "the [probabilistic forecast] guidance of the future." Although published less than three years ago, the article has already advanced technology that is being used at NOAA's Aviation Weather Testbed. Experts in probabilistic forecasting and risk management describe the article as a "ground breaker" and "a well-written roadmap to both the scientific community and user community on where we as a nation should be headed in ensemble weather prediction research and operations." The article embodies the finest qualities of the work done in RAL: imaginative; cross-disciplinary; cross-organizational; and beneficial to communities of scientists, engineers, and end-users. It also epitomizes NCAR's overarching mission of science in service to society.