HAPpy Hour Seminar: Towards more actionable climate modeling - reflecting priorities from Indigenous communities

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Abstract: Numerical models play a vital role in quantifying the impacts of climate change on physical earth systems and ecosystems, and supporting science-based adaptation and mitigation planning. Existing modeling practices heavily rely on the expertise, opinions, and preferences of experts while the needs and priorities of end-users, especially the communities vulnerable to climate change, are not effectively reflected in the modeling process. Neglecting the voices from end-users in numerical modeling can deteriorate the usability of model output while increasing the epistemic risks that may lead to misusing information for decision-making. In this study, we showcase a project-oriented co-designed climate modeling practice with Alaskan Indigenous Communities. The goal of the exemplar project is to converge Indigenous Knowledge and western science to strengthen collective understanding of terrestrial hydrologic change in the Arctic and the potential impacts on rivers, fish and Indigenous community. Aligned with the western science paradigm, numerical models for regional climate, river systems, and fish bioenergetics were adapted and customized for a regional application under Indigenous guidance. We will present the collaborative mechanism supporting this co-production as well as our reflections on this collaboration and visions for future improvement.

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