Informal Community Panel Discussion: A Community Gathering to Discuss the Recent Extreme Flooding in Texas
4:00 – 5:00 pm MDT
This event will begin with a short panel discussion hosted by Tim Schneider (RAL, NSF NCAR) and moderated by RAL Visitor, Jeff Basara (UMass-Lowell).
On July 4th 2025 a wall of water on the Guadalupe River tore through the Texas Hill Country. It was a flood wave that rose to more than 30 feet in less than an hour and claimed over 135 human lives. Is this a sign of the times? This event occurred within a short period that featured significant flooding events in other states as well (New Mexico, New Jersey, etc.). It calls into focus issues about the atmospheric forcings that drove the event, the hydrologic response, risk management and communications, and other societal implications.
There has already been much discussion of the extreme physical conditions that produced this event, including precipitable water values of approximately 2.5”, which is the 99 percentile of climatology for the region. The National Weather Service forecasts for severe, high impact storms were good. The official flood forecasts performed less well. There were also many human factors at play. The timing of the storm in the middle of the night was a factor, as well as the socio-economic decisions made over time, which created conditions of increased risk. And the heroic efforts to rescue people and comfort families in a time of crisis and loss, are juxtaposed with the less than savory politicization of the event during and afterwards and the assignation of blame.
Questions abound. How good were the forecasts? How and how well were the threats communicated? What are the implications of a rapidly changing climate? In short, could we have done better? This informal community discussion is an opportunity to join in conversation about this tragic event and probe these and other questions. What can we learn from it, and how can we contribute to the solutions? Please join us to listen, to share your thoughts with one another, to learn more about the event, and to express our sadness. This is open to all, please join us.
See also: https://theconversation.com/