Refereed Publications

2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019


Newman, A. J., M. P. Clark, R. J. Longman, E. Gilleland, T. W. Giambelluca, and J. R. Arnold, 2019. Use of daily station observations to produce high-resolution gridded probabilistic precipitation and temperature time series for the Hawaiian Islands. Accepted to J. Hydrometeorology


Abatan, A. A., W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. M. Ammann, L. Kaatz, B. G. Brown, L. Buja, R. G. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland and J. Halley Gotway, 2018. Statistics of Multi-year Droughts from the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE). International Journal of Climatology, 38 (8), 3405 - 3420, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5512.

Dorninger, M., E. Gilleland, B. Casati, M. P. Mittermaier, E. E. Ebert, B. G. Brown, and L. J. Wilson, 2018. Mesoscale Verification Inter-Comparison over Complex Terrain. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 99 (9), 1887 - 1906, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0164.1.

Gilleland, E., A. S. Hering, T. L. Fowler, and B. G. Brown, 2018. Testing the tests: What are the impacts of incorrect assumptions when applying confidence intervals or hypothesis tests to compare competing forecasts? Mon. Wea. Rev., 146 (6), 1685 - 1703, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0295.1; NOTE: Footnote 1 in the appendix had an error, which was fixed on 16 August 2018.

Fix, M., D. S. Cooley, A. Hodzic, E. Gilleland, B. T. Russell, W. C. Porter, and G. G. Pfister, 2018. Observed and predicted sensitivities of high and extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in the US (1996-2005). Atmospheric Environment, 176, 292 - 300, DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.12.036.


Abatan, A. A., W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. M. Ammann, B. G. Brown, L. Buja, R. G. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, J. Halley Gotway, and L. Kaatz, 2017. Multi-year droughts and pluvials over upper Colorado River basin and associated circulations. J. Hydrometeorology, 18, 799 - 818, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0125.1.

Ekström, M. and Gilleland, E., 2017. Assessing convection permitting resolutions of WRF for the purpose of water resource impact assessment and vulnerability work; a southeast Australian case study. Water Resour. Res., 53 (1), 726 - 743, DOI: 10.1002/2016WR019545.

Gilleland, E., R. W. Katz, and P. Naveau, 2017. Quantifying the risk of extreme events under climate change. Chance, 30 (4), 30 - 36, DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2017.1406757.

Gilleland, E., 2017. A new characterization in the spatial verification framework for false alarms, misses, and overall patterns. Weather Forecast., 32 (1), 187 - 198, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0134.1.

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Gilleland, E., M. Bukovsky, C. L. Williams, S. McGinnis, C. M. Ammann, B. G. Brown, and L. O. Mearns, 2016. Evaluating NARCCAP model performance for frequencies of severe-storm environments. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2 (2), 137--153, DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-2-137-2016.

Gilleland, E. and R. W. Katz, 2016. extRemes 2.0: An Extreme Value Analysis Package in R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72 (8), 1 - 39, DOI: 10.18637/jss.v072.i08.

Shen, L., L. J. Mickley, and E. Gilleland, 2016. Impact of increasing heatwaves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multi-model analysis using extreme value theory. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (8), 4017 - 4025, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068432.

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Bador, M., P. Naveau, E. Gilleland, M. Sànchez, and T. Arivelo, 2015. Spatial clustering of summer temperature maxima from the CNRM-CM5 climate model ensembles and E-OBS over Europe. J. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 17 - 24, DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.05.003.

Gilleland, E. and G. Roux, 2015. A New Approach to Testing Forecast Predictive Accuracy. Meteorol. Appl., 22 (3), 534 - 543 DOI: 10.1002/met.1485.

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Cheng, L., A. AghaKouchak, E. Gilleland, and R. W. Katz, 2014. Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate. Climatic Change, 127 (2), 353 - 369, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1254-5.

Cheng, L., E. Gilleland, M. J. Heaton, and A. AghaKouchak, 2014. Empirical Bayes estimation for the conditional extreme value model. Stat, 3 (1) 391 - 406, DOI: 10.1002/sta4.71.

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Gilleland, E., 2013. Testing competing precipitation forecasts accurately and efficiently: The spatial prediction comparison test. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, (1), 340 - 355, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00155.1.

Gilleland, E., B. G. Brown, and C. M. Ammann, 2013. Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather. Environmetrics, 24 (6), 418 - 432, DOI: 10.1002/env.2234. Available at:

Gilleland, E., M. Ribatet and A. G. Stephenson, 2013. A software review for extreme value analysis. Extremes, 16 (1), 103 - 119, DOI: 10.1007/s10687-012-0155-0 (available online at

Mannshardt, E. and E. Gilleland, 2013. Extremes of severe storm environments under a changing climate. American Journal of Climate Change, 2 (3A), 47 - 61, DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2013.23A005.

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de Oliveira, M.M.F., N.F.F. Ebecken, J.L.F. de Oliveira and E. Gilleland, 2011. Generalized extreme wind speed distributions in South America over the Atlantic Ocean region, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 104, (3 - 4), 377 - 385, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-010-0350-3.

Gilleland, E., 2011. Spatial Forecast Verification: Baddeley's Delta Metric Applied to the ICP Test Cases. Weather Forecast., 26 (3), 409 - 415, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05061.1.

Gilleland, E. and Katz, R.W., 2011. New software to analyze how extremes change over time. Eos, 11 January, 92 (2), 13 - 14, DOI: 10.1029/2011EO020001.

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Gilleland, E., D.A. Ahijevych, B.G. Brown and E.E. Ebert, 2010. Verifying forecasts spatially. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91 (10), 1365 - 1373, DOI: 10.1175/2010BAMS2819.1.

Gilleland, E., J. Lindström, and F. Lindgren, 2010. Analyzing the image warp forecast verification method on precipitation fields from the ICP. Weather Forecast., 25 (4), 1249 - 1262, DOI: 10.1175/2010WAF2222365.1.

Heaton, M.J., M. Katzfuss, S. Ramachandar, K. Pedings, E. Gilleland, E. Mannshardt-Shamseldin, and R.L. Smith, 2010. Spatio-Temporal Models for Large-scale Indicators of Extreme Weather. Environmetrics, 22, 294 - 303, DOI: 10.1002/env.1050.

Towler, E., B. Rajagopalan, E. Gilleland, R.S. Summers, D. Yates, and R.W. Katz, 2010. Modeling hydrologic and water quality extremes in a changing climate. Water Resources Research, 46, W11504, DOI: 10.1029/2009WR008876.

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Abeysirigunawardena, D.S., E. Gilleland, D. Bronaugh, 2009. Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the inner-south-coast of British Columbia Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 47 (1), 41 - 61, DOI: 10.3137/AO1003.2009.

Ahijevych, D., E. Gilleland, B.G. Brown, and E.E. Ebert, 2009. Application of spatial verification methods to idealized and NWP gridded precipitation forecasts. Weather Forecast., 24 (6), 1485 - 1497, DOI: 10.1175/2009WAF2222298.1.

Gilleland, E., D. Ahijevych, B.G. Brown, B. Casati, and E.E. Ebert, 2009. Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods. Weather Forecast., 24, 1416 - 1430, doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222269.1.

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Gilleland, E., T.C.M. Lee, J. Halley Gotway, R.G. Bullock, and B.G. Brown, 2008. Computationally efficient spatial forecast verification using Baddeley's Δ image metric. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136 (5), 1747 - 1757, DOI: 10.1175/2007MWR2274.1.

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Gilleland, E. and T.L. Fowler, 2006. Network design for verification of ceiling and visibility forecasts. Environmetrics, 17 (6), 575 - 589, DOI: 10.1002/env.765.

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Gilleland, E. and D.W. Nychka, 2005. Statistical models for monitoring and regulating ground-level ozone. Environmetrics, 16, 535 - 546, DOI: 10.1002/env.720.

Stephenson, A. and E. Gilleland, 2005. Software for the Analysis of Extreme Events: The Current State and Future Directions. Extremes, 8, 87 - 109, DOI: 10.1007/s10687-006-7962-0.

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Technical Notes


Gilleland, E. and Katz, R. W., 2016: in2extremes: Into the R Package extremes - Extreme Value Analysis for Weather and Climate Applications. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-523+STR, 102 pp., DOI: 10.5065/D65T3HP2.


Dorninger, M., M. P. Mittermaier, E. Gilleland, E. E. Ebert, B. G. Brown, and L. J. Wilson, 2013: MesoVICT: Mesoscale Verification Inter-Comparison over Complex Terrain. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-505+STR, 23 pp, DOI: 10.5065/D6416V21.

Gilleland, E., 2013. Two-dimensional kernel smoothing: Using the R package smoothie. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-502+STR, 17pp.


Gilleland, E., 2010. Confidence intervals for forecast verification. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-479+STR, 71pp.

Gilleland, E., L. Chen, M. DePersio, G. Do, K. Eilertson, Y. Jin, E.L. Kang, F. Lindgren, J. Lindström, R.L. Smith, and C. Xia, 2010. Spatial Forecast Verification: Image Warping. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-482+STR, 23pp.

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Book Chapters


Gilleland, E., F. Pappenberger, B. G. Brown, E. E. Ebert, and D. Richardson, 2016. Verification of meteorological forecasts for hydrological applications. In Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, Edts. Duan, Q., F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, A. Wood, H. L. Cloke, and J. C. Schaake, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, DOI: doi:10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_4-1.


Gilleland, E., 2016. Computing Software. Chapter 25 In Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications. Edts. Dipak K. Dey and Jun Yan, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, U.S.A., pp. 505 - 515.

Gilleland, E. and Ribatet, M., 2015. Reinsurance and extremal events. In: Computational Actuarial Science with R. Ed. A. Charpentier, Chapman & Hall/CRC the R series, Boca Raton, Florida, U.S.A., pp. 257 - 286.


Brown, B.G., Gilleland, E. and Ebert, E.E., 2012. Forecasts of spatial fields. pp. 95 - 117, Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd edition. Edts. IT Jolliffe and DB Stephenson, Wiley, Chichester, West Sussex, UK, 274 pp.


Gilleland, E., D.W. Nychka, and U. Schneider, 2006. Spatial models for the distribution of extremes, Hierarchical modelling for the Environmental Sciences: statistical methods and applications, Edts. JS Clark and A Gelfand. Oxford University Press, New York pp. 170 - 183. ISBN 0-19-8569671

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Edited Books

Machine Learning and Data Mining Approaches to Climate Science, 2015. Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Climate Informatics. Editors: Lakshmanan, V., Gilleland, E., McGovern, A., Tingley, M. (Eds.), Springer International Publishing, 252 pp., ISBN 978-3-319-17220-0, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-17220-0.

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Other Publications

Papers in this "Other Publications" section are fairly refined drafts published in some non-refereed venue; typically conference preprints.


Ahijevych, D.A., E. Gilleland, B.G. Brown, E.E. Ebert, L. Holland, and C. Davis, 2008. Intercomparison of spatial verification methods. 88th Annual American Meteorological Society (AMS) meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana. 9.1 Probability/Statistics conference.

Gilleland, E., M. Pocernich, H.E. Brooks, B.G. Brown, and P. Marsh, 2008. Large-scale indicators for severe weather. Proceedings of the American Statistical Association (ASA) Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), 3-7 August 2008, Denver, Colorado. (OpenSky citable URL,


Gilleland, E. and R.W. Katz. "Analyzing seasonal to interannual extreme weather and climate variability with the extremes toolkit (extRemes)", 18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 86th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting, 29 January - 2 February, 2006, Atlanta, Georgia. P2.15 (contributed poster). (OpenSky citable URL,


Gilleland, E., 2004. Optimizing METAR Network Design for Verification of Cloud Ceiling Height and Visibility Forecasts, conference proceedings (preprint) for the 2004 joint meeting of The Fifteenth Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society and The Sixth International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 28 June - 1 July, 2004, Portland, ME.

Gilleland, E., 2004. 2.5 Improving forecast verification through network design, proceedings of the 17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 84th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), 10 - 15 January, 2004, Seattle, WA.

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From the Desk

Papers in this "From the Desk" section are rough but ready (or sort of ready) papers that may (or may not) at some point be completed into a paper or technical note.

Gilleland, E., 2010. Confidence intervals for forecast verification: Practical considerations, (OpenSky citable URL,

Gilleland, E. and D.W. Nychka, 2009. Spatial forecast verification: Thin-plate splines. 18 June 2009. (OpenSky citable URL,

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