STEP Annual Workshop: Predictability and Prediction of Weather Related Hazards

STEP Annual Virtual Workshop Agenda

Feb. 2
8:45 Welcome and Opening Remarks
Everette Joseph (10 min)
Jenny Sun (5 min)

Session I. Toward Integrated Convection-Permitting Modeling
Chair: Dave Gochis
9:00-9:30 Keynote 1. NCAR's Emerging Approach to Promote Community Earth System Science
Glen Romine
9:30-9:50 NCAR’s Efforts on Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling
Andreas Prein
9:50-10:10 MPAS in SIMA: Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Capabilities in an Earth Systems Model
Bill Skamarock
10:10-10:30 Break
10:30-10:50 A Unified DA Framework Based on JEDI
Chris Snyder
10:50-11:10 Evaluation of MPAS Limited-Area Convection-permitting Simulations against WRF for the PECAN Period
Zhuming Ying
11: 10-11:40 Breakout Group Discussion
1. What are the requirements for high impact weather prediction (modeling and data assimilation) in NCAR’s integrated earth modeling system?
2. How can cross-lab collaboration be enhanced to strengthen high impact weather research with the future integrated modeling system?
11:40-12:45 Lunch break

Session 1 Video

Session II: Machine Learning Applications in Hazardous Weather Prediction
Chair: Chris Rozoff
12:45-1:15 Keynote 2. Overview of AI/ML Applications to Atmospheric Science
Amy McGovern (The University of Oklahoma)
1:15-1:35 Machine Learning for Predicting and Understanding High Impact Weather
Dave John Gagne
1:35-1:55 Extracting Information from Radar to Aid Data Assimilation
Ethan Gutmann
1:55-2:15 Recent Progress on Using Machine Learning to Produce Short-Term Predictions of Tornadoes and Other Convective Hazards
Ryan Sobash
Breakout group discussions (2:15-2:45)
1. What are the new topics in HIW research that ML has potential application on?
2. How can we further the applications of ML in HIW research through cross-lab collaboration?

Session 2 Video

Session III. Predictability of Convective Weather Systems and Their Associated Hazards
Chair: Tammy Weckwerth
9:00-9:30 Keynote 3. High Impact Weather Prediction from WWRP HiWeather Perspective
Brian Golding (MetOffice, UK)
9:30-9:50 Tropical Cyclones in Global Convection-permitting Simulations
Falko Judt
9:50-10:10 Simulation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Tornado Environments in WRF
Stan Trier
10:10-10:30 break
10:30-10:50 Hail Prediction with Improved Microphysics
Sarah Tessendorf
10:50-11:10 Impact of Assimilating Lower-atmospheric Wind and Thermodynamic Profiles on Convective Weather Forecasts over the CONUS
Junkyung Kay
11:10-11:30 Assimilation of New York State Mesonet Surface and Profiler Data for 21 June 2021 Convective Event
Hsiao-Chun Lin
11:30-12:00 Breakout Group Discussion
1. What are the emerging research topics in the area of HIW prediction that NCAR should consider to explore?
2. What are the opportunities to expand NCAR HIW research through cross-lab collaboration?
12:00-1:00 Lunch break

Session 3 Video

Session IV. Hazard Prediction via Coupled Modeling
Chair: Soyoung Ha
1:00-1:20 Advancing Air Quality Predictions in New Delhi during the Crop Residue Burning Season
Rajesh Kumar
1:20-1:40 Enhancing Flood and Flood-impacts Prediction Skill through Hydrologic Data Assimilation and Advanced Geospatial Analysis Methods
Arezoo RafieeiNasab
1:40-2:10 Breakout Group Discussion
1. What aspects of weather model forecasts are most important to drive hazard models?
2. What are the opportunities for enhancing the coupled modeling research across NCAR
through collaboration between weather and hazard modelers?
2:10-3:00 Report back by discussion group leads

Session 4 Video