Forecasting Unhealthy Air Quality for New Delhi
The air pollution in New Delhi is extremely high and poses a tremendous health threat. This pollution can become so extreme that city officials close schools, bans construction activities, and restricts traffic on highly polluted days. A recent study in Lancet found that fine particulates and other pollutants may have caused more than 1 million deaths in India in 2017 and reduced life expectancy of Delhi residents by ~6.5 years.
Air-Quality Forecasting System
NCAR is leading an effort in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) to develop an air-quality forecasting system that provides critical information for reducing people’s exposure to potentially unhealthy air. The new forecasting system has been providing 72-hour forecasts of PM2.5 since Oct 2018. This system uses measurements of pollutants, computer modeling, and statistical techniques. It updates the forecast every 24 hours. These forecasts are disseminated to the public and decision-makers via https://ews.tropmet.res.in/. This website has been accessed by ~1 million (~200,000 Indian) visitors so far, highlighting the global interest in this website.
The system helps decision-makers mitigate the risk of air pollution in Delhi and surrounding regions. The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) uses these forecasts to implement and revoke a variety of temporary emission control measures defined in their Graded Response Action Plan. These restrictions are found to cut peak pollution in Delhi by up to 22%. The technology has been adapted to provide air-quality forecasts in other Indian cities, namely Mumbai, Pune, Jaipur, Bengaluru, and Ahmedabad , as well as for experimental forecasts in the Contiguous United States.