Assessment of offshore wind and turbulence prediction for the Northeast US using a three-dimensional PBL parameterization in the WRF Model at gray zone resolution
Zaman, T., Juliano, T. W., Kosovic, B., Astitha, M.. (2026). Assessment of offshore wind and turbulence prediction for the Northeast US using a three-dimensional PBL parameterization in the WRF Model at gray zone resolution. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044765
| Title | Assessment of offshore wind and turbulence prediction for the Northeast US using a three-dimensional PBL parameterization in the WRF Model at gray zone resolution |
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| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | T. Zaman, Timothy W. Juliano, B. Kosovic, M. Astitha |
| Abstract | Offshore wind power plays a vital role in the expanding renewable energy landscape of theNortheast US. Accurate prediction of wind and turbulence is essential for optimizing the efficiency andreliability of offshore wind farms; however, boundary layer flows in the offshore environment can be complex.To address this challenge, our study uses an advanced three‐dimensional planetary boundary‐layer (PBL)scheme within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict hub‐height wind and turbulentkinetic energy (TKE) for the Northeast US offshore region. We conducted a comprehensive evaluation of sub‐kilometric, gray‐zone mesoscale WRF simulations with measurements of hub‐height wind and TKE, buoyancyand wind shear taken at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's Air‐sea Interaction Tower (ASIT). Ourevaluation for different synoptic forcings, clustered based on self‐organizing map analysis, revealed a goodagreement between the predicted and observed hub‐height wind speed, while the hub‐height TKE evaluationhad mixed performance. TKE was generally overpredicted in stable conditions, especially for strongly forcednodes with predominant southerly flow. In contrast, the model performed well in weakly forced, northerly flowregimes, regardless of stability. The overprediction of TKE under stable conditions was linked tomisclassification of atmospheric stability, a known limitation in stable boundary layer parameterizations. |
| Publication Title | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
| Publication Date | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044765 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qf8zd4 |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| RAL Affiliations | WSAP |