Tropical Cyclone Research Model Testing + Evaluation (TCMT)

Overview

In 2009, RAL's Joint Numerical Testbed formed a new entity called the Tropical Cyclone Modeling Team (TCMT). The focus of this team is testing and evaluation of experimental models for tropical cyclone forecasting. The current primary sponsor of work in the TCMT is NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). The main TCMT effort for 2009 focused on collection of forecasts from the HFIP 2009 Demonstration Project. In coordination with the HFIP teams, the TCMT developed a plan for collecting tropical cyclone track forecasts from the participating modeling groups and created a web site for making the track data available to other HFIP participants. Plans are also underway for collecting and making available specific sets of model forecast fields that can be used for diagnostic studies in the future. The TCMT is putting in place verification tools that will be used to evaluate the forecasts collected during the HFIP 2009 demonstration, and will provide guidance on improved methods for evaluation of tropical cyclone forecasts.

In 2010, tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts collected during the 2009 HFIP demonstration will be evaluated using consistent tools and approaches for all models. Statistical approaches will also be developed and implemented for the evaluation of other relevant attributes of tropical cyclone forecasts, such as forecast consistency. Plans will be developed for a focused test during the 2010 hurricane season, as well as relevant retrospective studies.

The TCMT and JNT staffs are collaborating with agencies associated with other tropical cyclone basins in the Bay of Bengal, Pacific and Indian Oceans and expect T&E initiatives to be initiated in FY2010 and FY2011.

Resources

Publications

Hamill, T. M., M. J. Brennan, B. Brown, M. DeMaria, E. N. Rappaport, and Z. Toth, 2010: Future ensemble based hurricane products. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., conditionally accepted. Also: online Appendix A and Appendix B.

Presentations

Kucera, P. A., B. G. Brown, L. Nance, C. L. Williams, K. Crosby, M. Harrold, and T. Jensen, 2010: The Tropical Cyclone Modeling Team (TCMT): Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) AGU Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec 13–17, 2010.

Kucera, P. A., B. G. Brown, L. Nance, C. L. Williams, K. Crosby, M. Harrold, and T. Jensen, 2010: The Tropical Cyclone Modeling Team (TCMT): Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) AMS Annual Meeting 2011: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.

Nance, L., L. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. Brown, L. Carson, T. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. Harrop, E. Szoke, E. Tollerud, J. Wolff, H. Yuan, 2010: The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Nance, L. B., L. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. Brown, L. Carson, T. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. Harrop, E. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. Wolff, H. Yuan, 2010: The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test. AMS Annual Meeting 2011: 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.

Williams, C. L., L. Nance, B. G. Brown, K. Crosby, M. Harrold, T. L. Jensen, and P. A. Kucera, 2011: Evaluation of retrospective forecasts from 2010 HFIP Stream 1.5 candidates. 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.

Bernardet, L., L. Nance , S. Bao, B. Brown, L. Carson, T. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. Harrop, and J. Wolff, 2010: HFIP high–resolution hurricane forecast test: Overview and results of track and intensity forecast verification. AMS 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, 10–14 May, 2010.

Brown, B. G., L. Nance, T. Jensen, and C. Williams, 2010: The Tropical Cyclone Modeling Testbed (TCMT) and its role in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). AMS 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, 10–14 May, 2010.

Nance, L., L. R. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, C. W. Harrop, E. J. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. K. Wolff, and H. Yuan, 2010: The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test: Beyond the traditional verification metrics. AMS 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, 10–14 May, 2010.

Williams, C., B. G. Brown, T. L. Jensen, and L. Nance, 2010: Evaluation of experimental model forecasts from HFIP 2009 Demonstration. AMS 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, 10–14 May, 2010.

Funding

Contact

Please direct questions/comments about this page to:

Barbara Brown

Sr Res Assoc - CAS

email

Louisa Nance

RAL Prog Dir

email

Paul Kucera

Mgr, International Cap & Bus Dev

email