NIWOT

NIWOT

Named after the Native American Chief Niwot, this new short-term forecasting system is being developed based on a blending of observation extrapolation technology and numerical weather prediction model output fields.  The promise is that the blending of numerical forecasts with expert system-based extrapolations will benefits from the skills of the latter at short time scales while weighing in more on the numerical prediction skills for extended outlooks, and by doing so yield improved short-term predictions.  This tool, which is aimed at 0 – 6 h forecasts of aviation impacting convection, will be flexible enough to accommodate improved extrapolation algorithms and numerical model output as they become available, and allow for forecaster input.  It is anticipated that the Niwot and NCWF efforts will eventually be combined into one next-generation short-term prediction system. 

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