Global Climatology Analysis Tool (GCAT)
The Global Climatology Analysis Tool (GCAT) is capable of generating fine-scale (3.3km) climatological analyses anywhere around the globe. For example, in a given month, analyses for each of the past 40 years are generated. Uncertainty in the mean analysed meteorological fields is derived from the ensemble and, for risk assessment, can be input into plume models, such as the DOD HPAC application.
By applying: 1) NCAR's MM5-based Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RT-FDDA) system; 2) the NCAR-NCEP Reanalysis Project (NNRP) 2.5 degree, 40-year gridded model dataset for lateral boundary conditions; and 3) observations from the NCAR ADP historical repository, GCAT creates a set of probabilistic forecasts and plume products to support the National Ground Intelligence Center's (NGIC) mission for Chemical Biological and Radionucleide (CBRN) consequence analysis. GCAT uses the climatological information generated from RT-FDDA, and couples it to the Second order Closure Integrated PUFF (SCIPUFF) dispersion model, which is part of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) toolset. This automated system takes advantage of the Linux cluster technology to perform the necessary climatological and plume-modeling computations. Outputs consist of data files and images that can be downloaded through a web interface.
Warner, TT., Bowers, JF., Swerdlin, SP., Beitler, BA. A Rapidly Deployable Operational Mesoscale Modeling System for Emergency-Response Applications. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. Vol. 85, no. 5, pp. 709-716. May 2004. abstract
Warner, TT., Sheu, R; Bowers, JF., Ian Sykes, R., Henn, DS. Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations. J. Appl. Meteorol. Vol. 41, no. 5, pp. 488-504. May 2002. abstract
Conference Publications and Presentations
Simulation of an anthrax release in downtown Torino in February. The mean winds from an ensemble of 40 MM5 runs was used to drive the Defense Threat Reduction Agency SCIPUFF Transport and Diffusion model.