8th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop
8:00 am – 6:00 pm MDT
The workshop’s central theme is to support NWS in its transition from single value - deterministic to ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and to convey forecast uncertainty to users in a manner that optimizes the utility of the information. The workshop will focus on a review of current ensemble forecast systems, with an emphasis on global systems and applications, ranging from prediction of regional weather systems with a few days lead time to large-scale phenomena with seasonal time scales. A complementary focus will be on working through our stakeholders and public users to support the NWS mission of providing weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. In addition, there will be discussions on future development of ensemble systems that utilize the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS). The development plan will fully consider user requirements and gather user inputs into the UFS context.
The workshop is organized by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) whose goal is to facilitate the future testing and transition of newly developed methods into operations, with support from the Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) of NWS and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Day one (August 27):
8:00 - 8:30am Refreshment/Registration
Session 1: Introduction/logistics; NWS roadmap; NCEP ensemble models review
Chair: Vijay Tallapragada
08:30 - 08:45 1.1 Opening remarks (Brian Gross; NCEP/EMC director)
08:45 - 09:00 1.2 Introduction and logistics - Walter Kolczynski (EMC/IMSG)
09:00 - 09:20 1.3 NWS roadmap - Yan Xue (OSTI; Invited)
09:20 - 09:50 1.4 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System - Xiaqiong Zhou (EMC/IMSG)
09:50 - 10:00 1.5 NCEP Global Wave Ensemble Forecast System - Henrique Alves (EMC)
10:00 - 10:30 Break
Session 2: Global ensemble forecast systems: ECMWF and NOAA partners
Chair: Jack Kain
10:30 - 11:10 2.1 ECMWF Global Ensemble Forecast System - Simon Lang (Invited; ECMWF)
11:10 - 11:30 2.2 CMC Global Ensemble Forecast System and Application - Stephane Gagnon (CMC)
11:30 - 11:50 2.3 Navy S2S coupled ensemble system - Justin McLay (NRL)
11:50 - 12:00 2.4 Air Force Global Ensemble Forecast System - Evan Kuchera (557th Weather Wing)
12:00 - 01:30 Lunch break and posters
Session 3: Ensemble products and application for weather - Part I
Chair: Jason Levit
01:30 - 02:00 3.1 Overall Center’s Review - Dave Novak (Invited; WPC) 02:00 - 03:30 NCEP Center + JTWC Overviews
02:00 - 02:15 3.2 WPC - Bruce Veenhuis
02:15 - 02:30 3.3 OPC - Joseph Sienkiewicz
02:30 - 02:45 3.4 AWC - Brian Pettegrew
02:45 - 03:00 3.5 SPC - Israel Jirak
03:00 - 03:15 3.6 NHC - Eric Blake
03:15 - 03:30 3.7 JTWC - Matt Kucas
03:30 - 04:00 Break
Session 4: Panel discussion on model development
Discussion topics: See below
04:00 - 05:30 Panelists: Vijay Tallapragada (EMC) - Lead, Jacob Carley (EMC), Matt Rosencrans (CPC), Eric Blake (NHC), Ernie Wells (OWP), Israel Jirak (SPC), Partha Mukhopadhyay (IITM
Day two (August 28):
Session 5: Ensemble products and application for weather - Part II
Chair: James Nelson
08:30 - 09:00 5.1 Overall NWS fields products review - Jeff Craven (MDL; Invited)
09:00 - 10:00 NWS Region Overviews
09:00 - 09:10 5.2 Eastern Region - Josh Watson
09:10 - 09:20 5.3 Southern Region - Greg Patrick
09:20 - 09:30 5.4 Central Region - Greg Mann
09:30 - 09:40 5.5 Western Region - Matthew Jeglum
09:40 - 09:50 5.6 Alaska Region - Gene Petrescu
09:50 - 10:00 5.7 Pacific Region - Bill Ward
10:00 - 10:30 Break
Session 6: Ensemble applications from community - Part I
Chair: Kathryn Gilbert
10:30 - 11:00 6.1 Tools to Utilize Ensembles During the Forecast Process: A Stony Brook CSTAR Perspective - Brian Colle (Invited; Stony Brook U.)
11:00 - 11:15 6.2 A Near-Median Density Index: An Order Statistics Approach to Assessing Ensemble Uncertainty; Keith Brill (WPC/IMSG)
11:15 - 11:30 6.3 The Spread of Tropical Storm Tracks in NCEP’s Global Ensemble model - Frank Colby
Frank Colby (UMass-Lowell)
11:30 - 11:45 6.4 The Testing of an Ensemble Based Canonical Tool For Prediction in the Day 8-10 Forecast Period at the Weather Prediction Center - Mike Bodner (WPC)
11:45 - 12:00 6.5 Tracking and Usage of Ensemble Model Heavy Precipitation Objects at the Weather Prediction Center; Michael Erickson (WPC)
12:00 - 1:30 Lunch break and posters
Session 7: Ensemble application from community - Part II
Chair: Yuejian Zhu
01:30 - 02:00 7.1 The MOGREPS Ensemble Systems - Ken Mylne (UK Met Office; Invited)
02:00 - 02:15 7.2 Impact Based Forecast for the Canadian Armed Forces: from a deterministic to a probabilistic approach - David Degardin (MSC)
02:15 - 02:30 7.3 Enabling Better Decisions via The Weather Company’s Probability Forecast Platform - James Belange (Weather Company - IBM)
02:30 - 02:45 7.4 Probabilistic Precipitation Calibration Using Two-parameter Ensemble Model Output Statistics; Xiang Su, (NCAR visitor)
02:45 - 03:00 7.5 The Use of Multi-Model Ensemble Clustering in The Weather Prediction Center’s Extended Range Forecast Experiment - Bill Lamberson (WPC/IMSG)
3:00 - 3:15 Break
Session 8: Panel discussion on product development and user feedback
Discussion topics: see below
03:15 - 04:15 Panelists: Jason Levit (EMC) - Lead, Kathy Gilbert (WPC), Israel Jirak (SPC), Danny Sims (FAA), Bill Myers (Global Weather Corporation)
Adjourn for day
Day three (August 29):
Session 9: S2S prediction and applications
Chair: Matthew Rosencrans
08:30 - 09:00 9.1 S2S overview - Dave DeWitt (CPC; invited)
09:00 - 09:20 9.2 CPC Review - Emerson LaJoie (CPC)
09:20 - 09:35 9.3 GEFS review for subseason - Wei Li (EMC)
09:35 - 09:50 9.4 Seasonal Forecasts: A Shift Towards Probabilistic at the Weather Company, an IBM Business - Michael Ventrice (Weather Company - IBM)
09:50 - 10:05 9.5 Update of GEFS Reanalysis/Reforecast - Hong Guan (EMC)
10:05 - 10:30 Break
Session 10: S2S prediction and applications
Chair: Mark Fresch
10:30 - 11:00 10.1 Review of National River Forecast Services - Ernie Wells (NWS Hydrologic Services Branch)
11:00 - 11:15 10.2 Forecast Informed Flood Management: Folsom Dam Reservoir Operations - Brett Whitin (California/Nevada RFC)
11:15 - 11:30 10.3 The importance of an ensemble forecast for the New York City’s Water Supply – a shift in the operational decision making approach - Adao Matonse (NYC Dept Environmental Protection - Bureau of Water Supply)
11:30 - 11:45 10.4 Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California - Chris Delaney (Sonoma Water)
11:45 - 12:00 10.5 Enhancing Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting Through an Integrated Multimodel System - Sanjib Sharma (Penn State)
12:00 - 01:30 Lunch and Posters
Session 11: National/international collaboration - Part I
Chair: Yuejian Zhu/Zoltan Toth
01:30 - 02:00 11.1 National ESPC overview - Dave McCarren (Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy; Invited)
02:00 - 02:20 11.2 High-resolution GEFS T1534 ensemble prediction system for better prediction of extremes - Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay (IITM)
02:20 - 02:40 11.3 The development and operational implementation of GRAPES global ensemble prediction system at CMA - Xiaoli Li (CMA)
02:40 - 03:00 11.4 Ensembles: Dynamically or Statistically Generated? - Zoltan Toth (GSD)
03:00 - 03:30 Break
Session 12: National/international collaboration - Part II
Chair: Huiling Yuan
3:30 - 3:50 12.1 Wave ensemble verification; Benoit Pouliot (ECCC)
3:50 - 4:10 12.2 Predictability of the Meiyu front rainbelt position for the 30 June to 4 July 2016 extreme rainfall period - Jie Ma, (CMA/NMC)
4:10 - 4:30 12.3 Overview of data access to ensemble products from Canadian Meteorological Center; Benoit Archambault, (CMC)
4:30 - 4:50 12.4 The Impact of Major Changes of CMA Global Ensemble on GRAPES; Jing Chen, (CMA/NWP Center)
Posters
P1. WPC The Application of Ensembles and Fuzzy Clustering to Enhance Winter Weather Predictability - Mike Bodner (WPC)
P2. Performance analysis on Extended-Range Ensemble Prediction over middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River in Meiyu period;- Yong Li (CMA/NMC)
P3. Bias correction of ensemble precipitation forecasts in the improvement of summer streamflow prediction skill - Huiling Yuan (Nanjing University)
P4. The Generation of Site-Specific Guidance Based on the Ensemble Forecast - Chaoping Chen (Sichuang Observation Station, CMA)
P5. An Introduction to Week-2 Temperature Extremes Forecast Guidance of Central Weather Bureau - Hui-Ling Chang (CWB)
Yuejian Zhu-lead of workshop committee; EMC ensemble project leader
Vijay Tallapragada-EMC chief of modeling and data assimilation branch
Jason Levit-EMC chief of verification/post-processing/product generation branch
Jack Kain-EMC lead of model group
Xiaqiong Zhou-EMC/IMSG task leader
Walter Kolczynski-EMC local coordinator
Liz Hoswell-NCAR coordinator